by Robert Schmad
Democrat-run states are still losing population, new Census Bureau data reveal, a development that could have electoral implications when the government reapportions congressional districts in 2030.
Oregon, California, Illinois, New York and Pennsylvania, all states with Democratic governors and Democrat-controlled state legislatures, lost between 0.01% and 0.52% of their population between July 2022 and July 2023, according to the Census Bureau. Left-leaning states experienced similar declines in the lead-up to the 2020 Census, which led to them losing seats in the House of Representatives and votes in the Electoral College, an outcome that could occur again in 2030 if current trends persist.
“On its face the trends look pretty bad for Democrats” as it relates to House reapportionment, Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
“But, it’s also premature to extrapolate trends from the last three years on to the next seven years,” he qualified. “In all likelihood we will see a continued shift from California, New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania to the sunbelt and more Republican-leaning states, however, the magnitude of that shift is what’s up in the air.”
New York saw the largest exodus, experiencing a net population loss of 101,984 people, according to Census estimates. California saw the second worst net loss at 75,423 people, followed by Illinois’ loss of 32,826 people.
A spokesperson for the California governor’s office told the DCNF that the state’s population decline was less this year than it was the year prior.
West Virginia, a Republican-run state, also saw a population decline. Louisiana, which has a Democratic governor and a Republican state legislature, also lost population.
Some states, by contrast, saw substantial population gains.
Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Arizona saw the largest net gains, with each state growing by 1% or more. Texas added 473,453 more residents than it lost, and Florida, a close second, saw a net increase of 365,205 people.
Each of the five states with the largest net population gains have Republican-controlled legislatures, and four out of the five have Republican governors.
Wasserman told the DCNF that “his suspicion” is that people leaving traditionally Democratic states and moving to more Republican ones are likely more conservative than people in their home states, but also more liberal than people in the states they’re moving to.
The Census calculated these figures by estimating the base population of states, adding births, subtracting deaths and adding the net migration into the state.
Some Democratic policies could be to blame for the large number of people leaving these states, according to public polling and policy reports.
A 2021 report by Erwin Antoni, an economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, and Stephen Moore, co-founder of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, found that New York’s high taxes would lead to a net loss of 1 million residents over a decade. New York’s 2022 to 2023 population decline is consistent with their predictions.
Thirty percent of Californians, meanwhile, said they were considering leaving the state because its laws are not in line with their personal views, according to a poll conducted by a group of California-based nonprofits.
Left-leaning states like New York, Illinois and California lost House seats following the 2020 Census, while right-leaning states like Texas, Florida and Montana gained seats. The American Redistricting Project estimates that if current population trends hold, conservative states will continue to pick up House seats while their liberal counterparts will lose seats again.
The offices of the governors of Oregon, New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s requests for comment.
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Robert Schmad is a reporter at Daily Caller News Foundation.
